Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Must Escape NOW

According to a certain morning show (shameless plug, but I think the anchor is cute. ha!) winter weather is on it's way at the end of the week.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! Normally I'd be jumping up and down at the thought of several inches of snow, but I was home ALL last week with a sick little one...I want my freedom. But since it's probably coming whether I like it or not I must escape TODAY and do my Walmart run because when there's a threat of weather here people rush to Walmart to stock up. I wouldn't go, but we need food. I have to go today because tomorrow will be even crazier if this weather pattern follows suit. If you live in the area and missed the forecast this morning I posted Jason's note below. Of course, I'll be watching Dan Skoff tonight to see if anything has changed and then I'll watch the morning show again. Until the roads are covered in snow or ice (Lord, please no...not a repeat of last year) I will keep my eyes on the weather.
If you're headed to Walmart...I'll see you there. Happy Tuesday!

Here's the latest from Jason Dollard:


Just like our Monday, the weather this morning is starting off COLD and BLUSTERY! Temperatures are in the low to middle 20's and wind chill values are in the teens! The one big difference from yesterday to today is that we will see more sun. Skies will be mainly sunny today and thanks to that sun, as well as the gusty winds dying down some, our temperatures will be a little warmer, with highs today ending up in the low to middle 40's.

High temperatures will be near 50 on Wednesday but then ANOTHER cold front will move in later Wednesday evening. We are going to have to watch this cold front closely because it will lead to some significantly colder weather for the end of the work week, as well as the upcoming weekend! Along with that colder weather will be some winter weather that looks to start up on Thursday and stick with us through the first half of Friday!

Before that winter weather starts up on Thursday we will see some light rain and drizzle from Wednesday evening's cold front. After that cold front swings through the colder weather will gradually start to move back in for Thursday.

At the same time the cold weather starts to move back in we will see an area of low pressure move in from the west on Thursday. Thanks to this low pressure system moving in we will see the rain and drizzle change over to a winter mix of sleet and/or freezing rain on our Thursday. Sleet and/or freezing rain will continue for part of Thursday but eventually the temperatures will get cold enough that we change over to accumulating snow! The snow looks to continue for us through Thursday evening and into the first half of Friday. Later Friday morning/early Friday afternoon the snow should wrap up and then high pressure will move in and keep us quiet for the upcoming weekend.

This forecast scenario is VERY TENTATIVE because the low pressure system that we are watching is still sitting offshore of CA this morning. The ultimate path of this low will determine how much sleet, freezing rain and snow we get, so we need to keep a close eye on this low as it makes its way east. Right now the computer models keep the low far enough to the south of us that Benton county will deal with more sleet than freezing rain. Washington county and Crawford county look like the likeliest locations for accumulating freezing rain, with more of a rain/freezing rain mix down in the River Valley.

If the low decides to move further south then we will see rain that changes over to sleet and then some light snow as we go through the day on Thursday. If the low stays closer to us we will see some rain that changes over to freezing rain and then eventually some light snow later Thursday. The long shot forecast at this point is a scenario where the low decides to stay way to the south of us. If this happened then we would just see some light snow on our Thursday, but this forecast does not look likely! Needless to say a lot is up in the air right now and it is something that we will be keeping a close eye on in the coming days!

It's still a little too early to talk specifics on accumulation amounts, because this all depends on how quickly we change over to sleet/freezing rain and then over to snow. Early indications are that a quarter to half inch of ice is possible and then anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of sleet/snow accumulation. AGAIN, this ALL depends on how fast we change over and the track of this low. Essentially, the longer we see the sleet and/or freezing rain, the lower the snow totals will be. The quicker we change over to snow, the more snow we will see.

Beyond Friday it looks like our weather will stay quiet for Saturday and Sunday, with cold high pressure settling into the area. This high pressure system will stay with us for the weekend before yet another cold front swings through the area early next week!

Overall, the weather pattern certainly remains a busy one! We will see quiet weather for today and some of Wednesday; but that quiet weather will get busy and pretty interesting for Thursday and Friday, depending on where that low pressure system decides to go. We will keep a close eye on things for you and keep you updated as the newest computer model information comes into us here in the Power Doppler Forecast Center, so make sure you keep checking back for updates! Have good day! – Jason Dollard

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